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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.